Environmental and Economic Consequences of Agriculture

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ABSTRACT

Agriculture is among the most consequential human activities. It is the leading driver of global land-use change, with attendant habitat loss, biodiversity decline, and carbon emissions; among the largest sources of water and air pollution; and a decisive influence on farmers' livelihoods and consumers' food prices. This dissertation examines the environmental and economic consequences of agriculture through three studies. The first estimates the welfare effects of Brazil's anti-deforestation policies. The welfare cost is substantial and falls narrowly on the producers the policies bind, while the benefits of preserved forest carbon are diffuse and global. A global cost-benefit analysis justifies the policies, but their concentrated costs leave them politically fragile. The second study decomposes three decades of nitrogen pollution from US agriculture, finding that rising yields and improving field efficiency have nearly cancelled, leaving the national surplus roughly flat. A new metric isolates the efficiency gain from the crop-mix and geographic shifts that confound conventional nitrogen use efficiency. The third study analyzes global crop yield trends and the gap between current and potential yields, finding substantial room to raise output on existing land but growth that falls short of projected mid-century demand, implying pressure for cropland expansion.

BIO

Linus Blomqvist is completing a PhD with an emphasis in Economics and Environmental Science, focused on agricultural systems. He built a career at the intersection of science and policy — serving as Director of the Food & Agriculture Program at the Breakthrough Institute before returning to academia — and is now a research consultant with The Nature Conservancy. He holds a master's in environmental science from Yale University and a BA in geography from the University of Cambridge. Linus is a recipient of a Schmidt Family Foundation Research Mentorship Award and a two-time Lone Mountain Fellow at the Property and Environment Research Center. He has published more than a dozen peer-reviewed papers, book chapters, and reports, and his work has been covered in outlets including The New York Times and The Economist.