Climate and Land Conversion Risk Assessment of Natural Climate Solutions in the Upper Guinean Forest

The Upper Guinean Forest region (UGF) of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo has been identified by Conservation International (CI) as priority landscape for potential nature-based restoration, given its ecological significance, ongoing threats of habitat loss, and a complex history of human interaction with the landscape. Legacy emissions continue to degrade ecosystem function, and anthropocentric pressures from agricultural expansion and human population growth have resulted in an estimated 83.3% loss of total West African forest cover since the start of the 20th century, threatening biodiversity and vital ecosystem services (Aleman et al., 2018; Ruf et al., 2015). Within this context, CI is pursuing opportunities to determine high-priority areas for forest recovery. This project will identify suitable areas to implement locally-tuned models of forest restoration and agroforestry in the Upper Guinean Forest region, accounting for future risks from climate change and land conversion to ensure the  long-term success of Natural Climate Solutions (NCS), and develop regional planning and management recommendations to mitigate risks to NCS and bolster community resilience through restoration and agroforestry.