Decarbonizing Central Asian Metropolises: A Science-Based Roadmap for Net-Zero Urban Development in Almaty and Astana, Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is the largest greenhouse gas emitter in Central Asia, and its two primary urban centers, Almaty and Astana, face compounding environmental challenges. Almaty's mountainous topography traps air pollution, causing smog that frequently exceeds WHO safety limits by tenfold, while Astana, the second-coldest capital in the world, relies heavily on coal-fired district heating to survive its extreme winters. Both cities are currently locked into carbon-intensive infrastructure, and lower-income communities in the northern parts of Almaty suffer significantly worse air quality and rely on low-quality coal or waste for heating due to lack of gas infrastructure. Addressing these challenges is increasingly urgent as Kazakhstan pivots toward its 2060 Carbon Neutrality Strategy and OECD Green Growth standards. This project aims to provide the Economic Research Institute (ERI) of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan with a data-driven decarbonization strategy for Almaty and Astana. Specifically, the project seeks to establish baseline carbon and pollutant footprints for the residential heating and urban transport sectors; identify which policy interventions, such as coal-to-gas transition, heat pump adoption, or public transit electrification, yield the highest emission reductions per dollar invested; and develop a carbon-neutral roadmap that integrates these technical solutions within Kazakhstan's existing national policy framework.

The project will take an interdisciplinary consulting approach, utilizing high-quality existing datasets from Kazhydromet, the Bureau of National Statistics, and ERI's own records. The team will conduct carbon accounting using the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (GPC), map emission hotspots through GIS modeling, and run scenario forecasts. Findings will be translated into a final technical report, an interactive Excel/Tableau decision-support model for ERI to simulate the impact of specific policy changes, and a high-level executive summary tailored for the Ministry of National Economy. Potential beneficiaries include municipal governments across Central Asia and the 3.5 million residents of Almaty and Astana.