Evaluating Neighborhood-Scale Decarbonization in a Disadvantaged Community through Energy System Electrification

Sonoma Clean Power Authority (SCP), a community choice aggregator serving Sonoma and Mendocino counties, is investigating regional electrification efforts to pursue attainment of California's climate goals while evaluating impacts to energy affordability. SCP’s operations prioritize cleaner energy procurement, accelerated renewable production, competitive pricing, and direct community investment. As such, SCP proposed a project to examine the impacts of electrification of Roseland, a small disadvantaged community within Santa Rosa, California. To quantify these impacts, the analysis was broken down into residential, commercial, and vehicle electrification. Economic barriers were evaluated including capital expenditures, remediation, and infrastructure upgrades, and reductions in carbon intensity were identified, offering a small-scale example of the potential emissions reduction impacts of electrification. Under a 100% residential, 100% vehicle and 55% commercial (maximum feasibility with modeled existing technology in Sonoma county) electrification scenario, the Roseland substation would be 122% of its rated capacity during a peak usage event. For Roseland’s most common housing type, single family detached homes, the average net energy costs would increase by an estimated ~$2,764 annually. Residential emissions decline significantly from baseline, falling 89.7% of pre-electrification rates. For commercial users, electric appliance and vehicle replacements combined with public EV charging resulted in peak load demand increases of 132% over baseline, with CO2e reductions of 57,656 MT per year. Notably, most of these impacts are from vehicle electrification. In total, electrification of Roseland would avoid ~86,156 MT CO2e annually, equivalent to removing ~20,000 gasoline-powered vehicles from the road. The results of this analysis support recommendations for SCP, including targeted incentives, future policy initiatives, and immediate rate restructuring to ensure electrification remains affordable, equitable and feasible for Roseland's residents.

Acknowledgements

UC Santa Barbara Bren School: Ranjit Deshmukh, Associate Professor (External Advisor); Eric Masanet, Professor (Faculty Advisor); Kyle Meng, Associate Professor (External Advisor)

Sonoma State University: Daniel Soto, Professor (External Advisor)

Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment Doerr School of Sustainability: Brady Seals Director, Electrification for Health, Human and Planetary Health

Sonoma Clean Power: Adam Jorge, Senior Decarbonization Policy Manager; Scott Salyer, Senior Program Manager, Decarbonization Strategy

Additional Acknowledgement: Diane Boss, Ph.D.