Modeling coral population dynamics to better conserve, manage, and restore coral reef ecosystems

The reefs surrounding Mo'orea, French Polynesia have been intensively studied for decades by the Moorea Coral Reef Long-term Ecological Research (MCR LTER) site, generating valuable insight into how coral populations respond to and recover from disturbances, including storms, predator outbreaks, and bleaching events. Over the past 50 years, Mo'orea's reefs have repeatedly lost substantial coral cover, only to rebound within a few years. This pattern of resilience may be weakening. In 2019, an Indo-Pacific-wide marine heatwave caused widespread coral mortality, especially around Mo'orea. Seven years later, the reefs have yet to recover. Using coral demographic data collected in SCUBA surveys from 2013–2024, we quantified recruitment, growth, and survival for three dominant coral genera (Acropora, Pocillopora, and Porites) before and after the 2019 bleaching event, examining whether patterns differed across two reef habitats (fore reef and lagoon) and eight sites around the island. Results from our statistical models can be used in coral population projection models to 1) identify demographic bottlenecks constraining recovery and 2) predict how coral communities around Mo'orea will change through time. These population models can be used to guide management strategies designed to help conserve corals in a warming climate.