Modeling coral population dynamics to better conserve, manage, and restore coral reef ecosystems

Coral reefs are among the world’s most diverse ecosystems and provide invaluable services such as storm protection and habitat for productive fisheries. The reefs surrounding Mo’orea, French Polynesia, face numerous anthropogenic and natural stressors, and recovery rates vary widely across study sites and influencing factors. Historically, the reefs returned to pre‑disturbance levels following severe disturbances that dramatically reduced coral cover. However, a marine heatwave in 2019 caused a sharp decline in coral cover, and the expected recovery has not yet materialized. This capstone project will identify the demographic bottlenecks that inhibit coral population recovery following recent disturbances and will model and visualize future coral‑community states. The resulting deliverables will be incorporated into a peer‑reviewed publication and will inform the design of alternative management interventions aimed at accelerating reef recovery.