Assessing the Impact of Supply-Side Policies on Oil Extraction, Health, and Employment in California

This project examines how supply-side oil and gas regulations impact greenhouse gas emissions, employment, and the health of communities in California living near oil wells. The project is especially focused on the implications of Senate Bill 1137 (SB1137), which would prohibit the construction of new oil and gas wells within 3,200 feet of schools, hospitals, and other sensitive receptors. This policy aims to mitigate the adverse effects of oil well pollution, which disproportionately harms disadvantaged communities throughout the state. The California public will vote on whether or not to implement SB1137 in a referendum vote in November 2024. Through the adaptation and extension of an existing workflow, the project statistically evaluates the environmental, health and labor effects of the 3,200 foot setback policy specified by SB1137. Machine learning methods are incorporated to enhance the predictive accuracy of oil well operations and outcomes through 2045. An interactive dashboard is developed to present the findings in an accessible way to policymakers, advocates, and the public that will be voting on SB1137. Overall, this project describes the potential of supply-side oil and gas regulations to reduce harmful emissions and health risks at the expense of fewer employment opportunities, equipping policymakers and the public with data-driven insights to support sustainable environmental practices.

Acknowledgments

The 2035 Initiative: Lucas Boyd, Executive Director

emLab: Tracey Mangin, Senior Project Scientist

Bren School of Environmental Science & Management: Paasha Mahdavi, Associate Professor; Ranjit Deshmukh, Assistant Professor; Carmen Galaz García, Assistant Teaching Professor; Samantha Csik, Lecturer; Kat Le, Technical Applications Manager; Allie Caughman, PhD Student